Sales Outlook Improves for 18 Machine Tool Makers in FY2026, Driven by Electronics and Aerospace Demand
Eighteen major Japanese machine tool manufacturers that have released earnings forecasts for the fiscal year ending March 2026 (or December 2025 for some companies) are showing signs of a gradual recovery. Twelve of the 16 companies that disclosed sales figures expect sales to increase, supported by demand from electronics, aerospace, and shipbuilding sectors. However, profitability remains uneven, and opinions differ on how to factor in the impact of U.S. tariff measures.
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Majority Expect Sales Growth, but Profit Recovery Remains Uneven
Among the 18 companies, 16 disclosed sales forecasts, with 12 expecting year-on-year growth. Of the 12 companies that released operating profit forecasts, six expect an increase, four forecast a decline, and two anticipate operating losses, highlighting the uneven pace of recovery across the industry.
Electronics, Aerospace, and Shipbuilding Drive Demand Across Key Markets
Orders related to electronics, aerospace, and shipbuilding in China, the United States, and Japan are key drivers of performance, supported by ongoing investment in semiconductors, electronic components, and defense-related projects.
TSUGAMI and MAKINO Benefit from Strong Demand in China and Asia
TSUGAMI, which focuses heavily on the Chinese market, revised its operating profit forecast for FY2026 upward to ¥27 billion, an increase of ¥7.5 billion from its previous estimate, reflecting strong performance in the first half. Local production in China and a rapid service and repair system have helped the company capture demand across automotive, semiconductor, and electronics applications.
MAKINO Milling Machine also revised its Asia order forecast upward to a 4% increase. Orders from China during the April–September 2025 period surged 50% year-on-year, driven by investment in molds for new energy vehicles (NEVs) and facility upgrades for electronic component production.
Citizen and SHIBAURA Supported by North America and Shipbuilding
Citizen Watch revised upward its operating profit forecast for its machine tool business to ¥6.4 billion, supported by strong demand for medical-related products in North America, partly driven by last-minute orders ahead of planned price increases.
SHIBAURA Machine reported a 25.9% increase in machine tool orders to ¥13.3 billion in the first half of the fiscal year. Domestic demand for large machines rose, and the company expects further growth in orders from the shipbuilding sector in the second half.
OKUMA and DMG MORI Face Headwinds from U.S. Tariff Uncertainty
OKUMA lowered its operating profit forecast for FY2026 to ¥14 billion, citing hesitation among small and medium-sized manufacturers to invest due to uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies, despite continued strength in large-scale defense and aerospace projects.
DMG MORI SEIKI also cut its operating profit forecast for FY2025 to ¥18 billion, factoring in delivery delays and the need to upgrade European-made CNC systems, which have disrupted shipment schedules amid tariff-related negotiations.
FANUC Sees CNC Orders Stabilizing After Front-Loaded Demand
FANUC reported a 5.4% year-on-year increase in FA division sales in the July–September 2025 period, while orders declined slightly. Management noted that some demand had been pulled forward earlier in the year and expects orders to remain relatively stable from the October–December period onward.
Source: Nikkan Kogyo Shimbun
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