Machine Tool Market Continues Recovery; Forecast to Grow 6% to 1.7 Trillion Yen in 2026
The global machine tool market is expected to sustain its recovery in 2026, with the Japan Machine Tool Builders' Association forecasting total orders to grow 6.0% year-on-year to 1.7 trillion yen.
Growth is driven by strong demand from China and the United States, alongside a gradual recovery in Europe and emerging opportunities in India.
According to SHIGETOMO SAKAMOTO, Chairman of JMTBA, the upward trend seen in late 2025 will continue into 2026, supported primarily by external demand, which accounts for over 70% of total orders.
Machine tool orders in Q4 2025 rose 14.1% year-on-year to 439.1 billion yen, marking the fifth consecutive quarter of growth. In January 2026 alone, orders surged 25.3% to 145.5 billion yen.
Strong External Demand Led by China and the U.S.
China remained the largest contributor, with orders rising 15.7% to 390 billion yen in 2025, accounting for over 30% of foreign demand.
Atsushi Ieki of OKUMA noted that the automotive sector remained weak except for EVs, with investment outlook varying across manufacturers.
Meanwhile, Kenji Yamaguchi of FANUC emphasized that China’s large market size will continue to sustain demand despite economic challenges.
However, analysts from SMBC Nikko Securities warn that subsidy-driven demand may weaken in its third year.
U.S. Market Supported by Policy Tailwinds
The United States recorded a 17.6% increase in orders in 2025, reaching a record 360 billion yen.
Key drivers include:
- Interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve
- Immediate depreciation tax policies
Large-scale investments are expected to cascade through the supply chain, benefiting SMEs.
Europe Shows Signs of Recovery
lthough European orders remained below 200 billion yen in 2025, markets such as Germany and Italy have shown consistent monthly growth.
Takashi Yamazaki of Yamazaki Mazak expects gradual recovery throughout 2026.
Japan Domestic Demand Driven by Semiconductors
Domestic demand in Japan is forecast to grow 13.4% to 500 billion yen, supported by the semiconductor sector.
Shotaro Miyazaki of Makino Milling Machine anticipates a recovery in the second half of 2026.
Government policies supporting AI and strategic industries, along with tax incentives, are expected to further stimulate investment.
Emerging Opportunities: Data Centers and Aerospace
Investments in data centers and aerospace are creating new demand, particularly for high-precision machining.
Masahiko Mori of DMG MORI highlighted growing demand for ultra-precision equipment in satellite and data transmission applications.
Automation and 5-Axis Machines Take Center Stage
With global labor shortages intensifying, manufacturers are focusing on:
- 5-axis machining centers
- Multi-tasking machines
- Robot-integrated automation systems
Comprehensive solutions combining hardware, automation, and services will be critical to capturing future demand.
Source: Nikkan Kogyo Shimbun
