JARA Forecasts Industrial Robot Orders to Rise 16.7% to Record ¥1.22 Trillion in 2026, Driven by Physical AI
The Japan Robot Association (JARA) forecasts that industrial robot orders will increase 16.7% year-on-year in 2026 to ¥1.22 trillion, which would mark a new all-time high for the industry if achieved.
The latest forecast represents an upward revision of ¥190 billion from the outlook released in January, reflecting stronger-than-expected demand from the electronics sector, particularly products related to artificial intelligence (AI).
Physical AI and Semiconductor Investments Drive Growth
Masahiro Ogawa, Chairman of JARA, who assumed the position on May 29 and also serves as Vice Chairman and Executive Officer of Yaskawa Electric, said global interest in “Physical AI” is increasing rapidly.
Physical AI refers to AI technologies that enable robots to move and perform tasks more autonomously in real-world environments. According to Ogawa, growing investments in semiconductors and electronic equipment are expected to support a continued recovery in industrial robot demand.
AI Server Demand Exceeds Expectations
JARA explained that its January forecast was based on performance data through October 2025. However, demand for electronic component mounting robots grew more strongly than anticipated from November onward.
The primary driver was increased demand for equipment used in AI servers, prompting electronics manufacturers to expand production capacity and increase automation investments.
The association noted that its latest forecast does not incorporate potential risks such as production disruptions among customer companies caused by the ongoing situation in the Middle East.
2025 Marked the First Growth in Three Years
The industrial robot market already showed significant improvement in 2025, supported by recovering automation investments in overseas markets and strong AI-related spending.
Industrial robot orders increased 25.7% year-on-year to ¥1.0456 trillion, while total shipments rose 20.4% to ¥993.7 billion. Both figures represented the industry's first annual growth in three years.
According to JARA, exports were the primary contributor to shipment growth, while demand for mounting robots used in electronics manufacturing expanded significantly.
Welding and Material Handling Robots Recovered
In addition to mounting robots, demand for welding robots and material handling robots also recovered substantially during the year.
The trend highlights renewed investment in factory automation across global manufacturing industries as companies seek to improve productivity and production efficiency.
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Domestic Demand Remains a Challenge
Despite strong overseas demand, Japan's domestic market remains relatively sluggish, particularly within the automotive manufacturing sector.
JARA stated that stimulating domestic demand will remain an important priority for the industry moving forward. Nevertheless, continued investments in AI infrastructure, semiconductors, and advanced electronics manufacturing are expected to remain key growth drivers for the industrial robotics market in 2026.
